Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
Dominant position in the worsted suiting business
Established track record of over ten decades, strong brand image and large retail network helped Raymond establish healthy position in the worsted suiting business. Raymond is India’s largest manufacturer of worsted fabrics and wool blends, and enjoys a dominant market share. It had 1,086 retail outlets branded as The Raymond Shop (TRS) as on December 31, 2023, across India and abroad.
Diversified revenue streams, with good traction seen in real estate project
The group’s revenue profile is well diversified, with significant presence in branded textiles (39% of company’s revenue in fiscal 2023), branded apparel (16%), garmenting (13%), high value cotton shirting (9%), engineering (10%) and real estate (13%) businesses. The company owns well-known brands such as Park Avenue, Raymond ready-to-wear, ColorPlus, and Parx, and has introduced the made to measure (MTM) store concept to offer custom-fit solutions. The company has also enhanced focus on ethnic wear in the recent past, which is seeing good traction, especially in the wedding seasons between April-May, and October -December.
Raymond is also present in the engineering segment (10% share of revenue in fiscal 2023); it manufactures and markets steel files and cutting tools, hand and power tool accessories (tools and hardware) and manufactures ring gears, flexplates and water pump bearings (auto components). It is the largest manufacturer of steel files, wherein the company is the market leader with a domestic market share of about 65%. Also, it holds ~50% volume share in the domestic ring gears market supplying passenger vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
Raymond also forayed into real estate development on 20 acres of its own land piece in Thane in fiscal 2019, launching its value project (Ten X) on which it has sold ~88% of total inventory by December-2023. Subsequently, it launched more new projects in the value (Ten x Era) and premium categories (Address by GS, Address by GS2, and Invictus by GS) making healthy sales booking in each of them. In total, it targets to achieve ~Rs 9,000 crore sales on the 36 acres of own land bank on which it has already launched projects. Besides it continues to hold another 52 acres land having development potential of 7.4 mn sqft valued at ~Rs 16,000 crore. With construction continuing at a healthy pace and delivery of 3 towers in the value (Ten X) project 2 years ahead of schedule as per RERA, the company recorded Rs 1,115 crore and Rs 915 crore in revenue during fiscal 2023 and first nine months of fiscal 2024, respectively. The company is also focused on expanding in the residential real estate market in the Mumbai metropolitan (MMR) region through the joint development agreements (JDA), wherein has entered into three agreements to develop land parcels in Bandra East, Mahim west and Sion having revenue potential totalling to about Rs 5,100 crore over the next 5-6 years. Contribution from real-estate to total revenue which stood at ~11% to the company in fiscal 2022 is expected to ramp-up to 16-17% over next 2-3 years.
Strong retail network
Having one of the largest retail store networks across India and overseas (1,086 The Raymond Store [TRS], 46 Made-to-Measure [MTM] stores, and 380 exclusive brand outlets as on December 31, 2023) has helped the company reinforce its market position. Raymond is expanding its dealership network to Tier 3 and 4 cities and towns, and has 20,000 touch points across the country. Net store closures (net addition of new stores less store closures) stood at 135 in fiscal 2022 and 58 in fiscal 2023, with the company continuing with its cost-rationalisation measures.
Strong liquid surplus levels maintained over time
Raymond has maintained strong liquid surplus over the years which has helped them maintain sufficient cushion to meet any unforeseen needs. The company has kept liquid surplus in excess of Rs 500 crore even during the pandemic years. The liquid surplus has been bolstered over time as seen during October-2019 when 20 acres of legacy land parcel was sold as well as recent sale of FMCG business in April-2023. Liquid surplus levels improved to Rs 1,835 crore as of December 31, 2023 from Rs 958 crore as of March 31, 2022 (Rs 569 crore as of March 31, 2020). Cash surpluses are expected to remain strong even after pre-payment of debt and payment for MPPL acquisition.
Healthy financial risk profile
Raymond’s financial risk profile has improved during the first six months of fiscal 2024 with repayment of external debt by utilization of FMCG business sale of proceeds. Total external debt halved to ~Rs 1,151 crore on September 30, 2023 from Rs 2,101 crore on March 31, 2023 and further to Rs 1,054 crore by December 31, 2023. Also, aggregate liquid surplus improved to Rs 1,835 crore as of December 31, 2023 from Rs 1,410 crore as of March 31, 2023. Company is expected to maintain debt metric with net debt free status and gearing (on external debt) expected to remain below ~0.2 over the medium term with sustained healthy operating performance.
Earlier, in fiscal 2023, the financial risk profile had shown a strong improvement through strong cash generation with interest cover and net cash accrual to total debt ratios improving to 5.20 times and 0.32 times respectively from 3.70 times and 0.20 times, in fiscal 2022. Gearing and net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 0.71 times and 0.64 times in fiscal 2023 versus 0.88 times and 1.75 times, respectively in fiscal 2022. Monetisation of the FMCG business, with proceeds being used to retire debt, has resulted in further improvement in debt metrics with gearing (on external debt) improving to ~0.3 times. Debt metrics are expected to remain strong over the medium term, supported by healthy operating performance.
Weaknesses:
Exposure to volatility in raw material prices
Volatility in cotton and wool prices led to fluctuation in operating profitability. Raymond imports bulk of its wool requirement from Australia and New Zealand; it maintains a hedge book for major portion of its related forex exposure. For instance, in the past, material increases in the price of wool and cotton (owing to increase in minimum support price in India) had resulted in moderation of overall operating profitability in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2019, respectively; albeit partly offset by the company’s ability to pass-on the increases to customers.
Intense competition in the domestic apparel business
The domestic apparel business is highly fragmented with competition intensifying among organised players. Brand penetration is likely to increase in the long term among leading players such as Grasim Industries Ltd (Grasim; ‘CRISIL AAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+’; erstwhile Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd merged with Grasim) and Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd (‘CRISIL AA+/Stable/CRISIL A1+’), with various brands, including Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly and Peter England; Siyaram Silk Mills Ltd (‘CRISIL AA-/Positive/CRISIL A1+’) and Arvind Ltd (Arrow). The apparel retail industry is expected to witness a healthy CAGR of 17-22% during three years through fiscal 2026, driven by strong same-store sales, new store launches, improved penetration of organized retail and higher contribution from online channels.
Exposure to demand and implementation risks in the residential real estate business
Raymond entered the real estate sector in fiscal 2019 by way of monetising 14 acres of prime land parcel in Phase 1 (Ten X project) comprising 10 towers having 1.7 million square feet (sq ft) of Carpet area as per RERA. With its prime location, attractive price point in the one- and two-bedroom-hall-kitchen segments and competitive pricing, the project has received healthy traction, with 2,738 units booked as on December 31, 2023, in the 10 towers launched. Thereafter, it launched the “Address by GS, Adress by GS 2, and Invictus by GS” projects in the premium segment and “Ten X Era” project in the value segment. These launched projects on the 36 acres land, in total, are targeted to achieve ~Rs 9,000 crore sales over the medium term. Besides it continues to hold another 52 acres land having development potential of 7.4 mn sqft valued at ~Rs 16,000 crore.
With construction continuing at a healthy pace and delivery of 3 towers in the value (Ten X) project 2 years ahead of schedule as per RERA, the company recorded Rs 1,115 crore and Rs 915 crore in revenue during fiscal 2023 and first nine months of fiscal 2024, respectively. The company is also focused on expanding in the residential real estate market in the Mumbai metropolitan (MMR) region through the joint development agreements (JDA), wherein has entered into three agreements to develop land parcels in Bandra East, Mahim west and Sion having revenue potential totalling to about Rs 5,100 crore over the next 5-6 years. A project portfolio of a large size coupled with strong development plans, exposes the company to demand and implementation risks which are inherent in the residential real estate business.
Phase-wise booking, development strategy and tie-ups with reputed contractors, such as Capacite Infraprojects Ltd, reduce implementation and funding risks, leading to low reliance on external debt. However, with sizeable units remaining to be sold and new JDA projects, the company will be exposed to demand and implementation risks over the medium term. The company though is expected to be better placed compared with peers due to attractive pricing of its value project and demonstration of faster execution capabilities. That said, given the vast size of the project, the pace of progress, ramp-up in operations and sales booking will be key monitorables.